A deepening crisis in the Middle East is tightening pressure on Africa’s fuel lifeline, exposing the continent’s dependence on imported petroleum and its limited capacity to absorb external shocks.

Escalating tensions linked to the Iran war have disrupted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The International Energy Agency estimates that around 600,000 barrels per day of petroleum products normally shipped from the Middle East to African markets are now at risk as traffic through the corridor slows sharply.

Energy analytics firm Kpler reports that petroleum product loadings bound for Africa plunged from 580,000 metric tonnes in January to 183,000 metric tonnes in February, a 68.4 per cent collapse. By March, volumes had fallen to zero, wiping out the entire quarterly flow and signalling a near-total breakdown in a key supply route.

The squeeze is already being felt most acutely in East and Southern Africa, where reliance on Middle Eastern fuel is highest. Governments are scrambling for alternative cargoes amid fears that richer countries will outbid African buyers in a tightening global market.

“We are looking everywhere for supply options,” said Jacob Mbele, Director-General at South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources. “We are comfortable that in the coming weeks or so, we are safe, but the situation is fluid; it changes every day.”

In Kenya, which consumes about 100,000 barrels of fuel daily and imports all of it, the margin for error is thin. The country holds roughly 21 days of stock. “The biggest suppliers are rationing product, and some distributors are experiencing stock-outs in rural areas,” said Martin Chomba, chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya.

Ethiopia has urged citizens to cut fuel use as authorities prioritise essential services. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has called for consumption to be directed towards “basic and essential needs,” underscoring the strain on supplies.

The disruption is accelerating a broader reshaping of global fuel trade. Cargoes once earmarked for Europe and Africa are being diverted to Asia, where demand and prices have surged. Russian diesel is increasingly filling the gap in West Africa, with hundreds of thousands of tonnes arriving or expected in recent months, while Indian exporters are sending more diesel to Southeast Asia, further sidelining African buyers.

Despite being a major crude producer, Africa has lost about a third of its refining capacity over two decades, leaving many states exposed. Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery offers some relief, with capacity to cover most of the country’s 493,000-barrels-per-day fuel demand and potentially export surplus. Yet even Nigeria remains vulnerable, as refinery operations still depend partly on imported crude.

Energy analysts warn that without rapid investment in domestic refining and more diversified supply routes, Africa will remain at the mercy of geopolitical shocks far beyond its borders, with fuel security and economic stability hanging in the balance.