Jamie Carragher has declared Manchester United “virtually a guarantee” for next season’s Champions League after Michael Carrick’s side ground out a 1-0 victory at Everton to extend their unbeaten run.

Substitute Benjamin Sesko struck his third goal in four games off the bench, a clinical finish that not only settled a tight contest at Goodison Park but also underlined United’s growing resilience under Carrick. The win lifted United back into fourth place in the Premier League, three points clear of Chelsea after the London club slipped up against Burnley.

With Aston Villa only three points ahead in third and juggling a demanding European schedule, Carragher believes the momentum and fixture list are tilting decisively in United’s favour.

“Manchester United are virtually a guarantee,” he said on Monday Night Football. “Aston Villa look like they’re dropping points at the moment. They’ve got European football on a Thursday night. Liverpool and Chelsea are both still in the Champions League and the FA Cup and will want to do well in at least one of those competitions. I can’t see Manchester United not making it.”

Gary Neville echoed that optimism, arguing that United’s absence from European competition could prove decisive in the run-in.

“They’ve got an incredible opportunity to finish in the top four,” Neville said on his podcast. “The other teams start playing in Europe, they’ve got distractions. United haven’t got any distractions. They’re now starting to get over the line in games where they wouldn’t have done before. I think they could finish third, I really do.”

Neville pointed to a shift in mentality within the squad, highlighting how United are now collecting points even when performances are uneven. “They’re winning when they play well, they’re winning when they don’t play well, they’re picking up a point when they didn’t play well at West Ham. All the right things are starting to happen.”

Data models are more cautious. Opta’s supercomputer still projects United to finish fifth, behind Villa and Liverpool in the race for the top four. Yet that position is likely to be enough. Thanks to England’s strong showing in Europe and UEFA’s new European Performance Spots, a fifth-place finish in the Premier League is expected to carry a Champions League berth.

For Carrick and his players, that combination of form, fixtures and favourable coefficients has turned a season that once looked lost into one brimming with opportunity.