I don't know if this happens to anyone else, but when I'm unprovenly sure about something, I often realize at the end of the day that I've been wrong all along. However, when I try to let things be and not overthink, everything seems to flow smoothly.
In science, we were taught that before a test is declared accurate, it must pass through a rigorous process and be tested as a hypothesis (a guess or an assumption). It must be thoroughly tested before being approved. I think this approach should be applied to life as well.
Assumptions that aren't properly tested are fallacies - they play tricks on your mind until you start questioning why you assumed something in the first place. Don't get me wrong, we do have strong instincts, and it's true not to ignore them. But when it comes to assumptions, you have to be careful that your mind isn't tricking you into seeing something that isn't there - like mistaking black for blue.
Don't assume; instead, follow your instincts.