England arrive at this World Cup carrying both expectation and algorithmic endorsement. Opta’s supercomputer, running 10,000 simulations and weighing form, rankings and historical data, gives Thomas Tuchel’s side a 10.9 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, placing them behind only Spain on 15.9 per cent and France on 13.2 per cent.

On paper, that sounds like a genuine shot at glory. In practice, England’s projected route is brutal. The model expects them to top Group L ahead of Croatia, Ghana and Panama, then face Senegal in the round of 32 and co-hosts Mexico in the last 16. From there, the path turns into a gauntlet: Brazil in the quarter-finals, Argentina in the semi-finals and Spain in the final.

By comparison, Spain’s predicted journey is less punishing. They are tipped to win Group H, containing Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cabo Verde, then meet Austria, Netherlands, Belgium and finally France before a projected showdown with England. France’s route, while tricky, is also kinder than England’s, with a group featuring Norway, Senegal and Iraq, followed by Sweden, Colombia and Germany.

Average opponent strength underlines the disparity. England’s potential knockout rivals carry an average FIFA ranking of eight, compared with 8.8 for Spain and 15.8 for France. If England are to justify their status, they will have to do it the hard way.

Yet there are reasons the data likes them. Opta’s club Power Rankings place England’s squad highest of the three favourites, reflecting that 20 of Tuchel’s 26 players operate in the Premier League, rated the strongest league in the world. In pure market value, France lead with a squad worth around £1.33bn, followed by England at £1.14bn and Spain at £1.1bn, but England’s depth across positions is unusually even.

Form and fitness may prove decisive. Harry Kane arrives after a prolific season with Bayern Munich, while Jude Bellingham is England’s sole representative among the tournament’s ten most valuable players. France boast Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise, both in explosive form, whereas Spain’s talisman Lamine Yamal is returning from injury, adding a layer of uncertainty.

Age profiles also matter in the expected heat and humidity. Spain’s squad averages 26.2 years, with England and France close behind at 26.6, aligning with the historical trend that World Cup winners tend to be on the younger side. Brazil and Argentina, with significantly older groups, may face greater physical strain deep into the tournament.

Logistics, however, tilt against England. Based in Kansas City, they must shuttle to Boston, New York and Dallas in the group stage alone, covering 8,948km – one of the heaviest travel loads in the competition. France, confined largely to the US east coast, will travel just 1,518km, a potential advantage in recovery and preparation. Spain’s travel burden sits in the middle at 5,464km.

History offers another warning. Only once has a European nation won a World Cup staged in the Americas: Germany in 2014. Otherwise, South American sides have dominated, better adapted to climate and conditions. For England, Spain and France, the task is not only to outplay Brazil and Argentina but to overturn a continental trend.

So are England truly third favourites? Statistically, yes. Their squad quality, league pedigree and youthful profile justify the numbers. But their projected route, travel demands and the weight of history mean that 10.9 per cent feels less like a prediction of destiny and more like an invitation to defy the odds.