Nigeria’s food inflation has dropped to its lowest level in more than 14 years, offering a rare respite in a country long battered by soaring prices. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that food inflation slowed to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, the first single-digit reading since 2011.

The reversal is striking. Just a year earlier, food inflation stood at 29.63 per cent, meaning the rate of increase in food prices has fallen by 20.73 percentage points in 12 months. On a month-on-month basis, food prices actually declined by 6.02 per cent in January, deepening the modest 0.36 per cent fall recorded in December 2025.

According to the statistics office, the easing was driven by lower average prices of staples such as water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon, and cassava. On a 12‑month average basis, food inflation dropped to 20.29 per cent from 38.47 per cent a year earlier, underscoring how sharply the pace of food price increases has moderated since the 2024 peak of 40.87 per cent.

Headline inflation also cooled slightly, edging down to 15.10 per cent from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, defying earlier analyst projections that it could surge to 19 per cent. The Consumer Price Index fell to 127.4 from 131.2, indicating that the overall price level declined during the month. Year-on-year, headline inflation is now more than 12 percentage points below the 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025.

The disinflation trend is broad-based. Urban inflation eased to 15.36 per cent from 29.45 per cent a year earlier, while rural inflation fell to 14.44 per cent from 25.04 per cent. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 17.72 per cent from 25.27 per cent.

Yet business leaders warn that the statistics do not fully reflect the reality facing households. Representatives of the Organised Private Sector say that although the pace of price increases has slowed, the cost of living remains punishingly high.

Kuti-George, National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, attributed the improvement to higher agricultural output and a more stable exchange rate, arguing that increased production of rice and cassava has helped ease pressures. But Eke Ubiji, Director-General of the National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, countered that consumers still feel little relief, insisting that both food and non-food items remain expensive and vulnerable to renewed price shocks.

For many Nigerians, the data signal a welcome shift after years of relentless inflation. Whether that shift translates into meaningful relief at the market stalls will depend on how long the current trend can be sustained.