Seven leading OPEC+ producers have agreed to raise oil output from August, underscoring growing confidence that Gulf exports are recovering after months of war-related disruption to one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

The decision, reached at a virtual ministerial meeting, will lift the group’s collective production quota by 188,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman backed the move as part of a broader effort to restore supplies that were curbed when fighting in the Middle East choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint at the mouth of the Gulf, handles roughly a fifth of globally traded crude. Missile and drone attacks on tankers, heightened naval patrols and insurance restrictions had forced Gulf producers to trim exports and reroute some shipments, driving up freight costs and injecting fresh volatility into oil markets.

Industry data show that combined output from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait plunged by about six million barrels per day at the height of the disruption, as producers shut in fields and drew down storage to meet term contracts. Traders say that squeeze helped support benchmark prices even as global demand growth slowed.

Maritime flows began to normalise after a US–Iran memorandum of understanding eased tensions around the waterway and established new protocols for vessel inspections and naval coordination. Shipping agencies now report a steady increase in tanker transits, though some operators remain cautious and premiums for war-risk insurance are still elevated.

Analysts caution that the OPEC+ increase will not translate into an immediate flood of barrels. UBS commodity strategist Giovanni Staunovo notes that current production remains below the alliance’s formal targets, while Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen points out that restarting mothballed fields and restoring pressure in reservoirs is a phased process that can take weeks.

Modest gains are expected in the near term, with a more visible rebound in exports projected from August as additional capacity comes back online and Gulf producers rebuild depleted inventories.

The policy shift comes at a delicate moment for OPEC+. The group is adjusting to the exit of the United Arab Emirates and preparing for a review of members’ production baselines, a politically charged exercise that will shape national quotas for years. Iraq, which suffered heavy losses during the conflict, is already lobbying for a higher ceiling, a demand likely to feature prominently in the next capacity review.