The African Union and the Economic Community of West African States have issued coordinated assessments indicating that the escalating confrontation involving the United States, Israel and Iran is likely to generate significant economic and political consequences for African states.
According to their statements, the primary transmission channels of impact are expected to be global energy markets, trade routes and food supply chains. Many African economies are structurally dependent on imported fuel and key food commodities, making them vulnerable to external price and supply shocks. These vulnerabilities are compounded by existing conditions of high public debt, elevated inflation and persistent insecurity in several regions.
Officials from the African Union highlighted that any sustained disruption of oil flows from the Gulf region would likely increase fuel and transport costs across the continent. Given the central role of fuel in production and logistics, such cost increases would be expected to feed into higher prices for food and other basic goods. Countries that import most of their refined fuel and wheat are assessed as particularly exposed to volatility in global markets.
Senegal’s Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko referenced estimates that approximately 30 to 40 percent of global oil shipments transit the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint now implicated in the confrontation. Based on this concentration of flows, he projected that a sharp rise in energy prices would rapidly translate into higher living costs for large segments of the African population, with potential to intensify social tensions and weaken already fragile post-pandemic economic recoveries.
Beyond the economic dimension, regional leaders and analysts anticipate that the conflict could exacerbate existing geopolitical divisions within Africa. Governments on the continent are already subject to competing pressures from major external powers. A prolonged US–Iran confrontation could increase these pressures, complicating diplomatic positioning and potentially affecting peace and security initiatives in regions such as the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.
Morocco has established a crisis unit to monitor the situation of its citizens residing in the Middle East. The Foreign Ministry reports that it is tracking developments and has opened dedicated communication channels for Moroccans seeking assistance. This response illustrates broader concerns regarding the safety and welfare of African diasporas in Gulf states and Israel.
AU chairman Mahamoud Ali Youssouf characterised the situation as having serious implications for energy markets, food security and overall economic resilience. He noted that many African states are simultaneously managing internal conflicts and severe economic pressures, reducing their capacity to absorb additional external shocks.
In response, the African Union has called for restraint, rapid de-escalation and sustained dialogue among the parties to the conflict, emphasising diplomatic solutions over military options. ECOWAS has aligned with this position, warning that although Africa is geographically distant from the primary theatres of confrontation, it is unlikely to avoid the indirect economic and political fallout if the crisis continues or intensifies.
