England arrive at the World Cup carrying both expectation and evidence to justify it. Opta’s supercomputer, running 10,000 simulations and weighing form, rankings and historical data, gives Thomas Tuchel’s side a 10.9 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, placing them behind only Spain on 15.9 per cent and France on 13.2 per cent.

On paper, England’s route is brutal. The model expects them to top Group L ahead of Croatia, Ghana and Panama, then face Senegal in the round of 32 and co-hosts Mexico in the last 16. From there, the path turns into a gauntlet: Brazil in the quarter-finals, Argentina in the semi-finals and Spain in a projected final they are tipped to lose.

By comparison, Spain’s predicted journey is demanding but marginally kinder. They are forecast to win Group H, then meet Austria, Netherlands, Belgium and finally France in the semi-finals before that notional showdown with England. France, drawn in a tricky Group I, are expected to navigate Norway, Senegal and Iraq, then Sweden, Colombia and Germany before falling to Spain in the last four.

Measured by the average FIFA ranking of projected knockout opponents, England face the steepest climb. Their potential rivals average eighth in the world, compared with 8.8 for Spain and 15.8 for France. Yet England’s squad profile suggests they are equipped for such a test.

Opta’s club Power Rankings place England top among all contenders, a reflection of 20 of their 26 players operating in the Premier League, rated the strongest league globally. France edge the field in transfer value at around £1.33bn, but England’s £1.14bn squad is second, narrowly ahead of Spain’s £1.1bn.

Star power is spread across the three favourites. England lean heavily on Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane, who arrives after a prolific season with Bayern Munich. France boast Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise and Desire Doue among the tournament’s most valuable players. Spain’s hopes rest on Lamine Yamal and Pedri, though Yamal’s recent injury lay-off introduces uncertainty.

All three squads are notably young, with average ages around 26, historically a sweet spot for World Cup winners. But external factors may tilt the balance. England must endure one of the tournament’s heaviest travel schedules, racking up nearly 9,000km across group games in Boston, New York and Dallas, while France enjoy a compact itinerary on the US east coast and Spain face only moderate travel.

History also looms large. European sides have rarely triumphed in World Cups held in the Americas, with Germany’s 2014 success the lone exception. For England, that underlines the scale of the task. The data says they are genuine contenders; the context says they will need to be exceptional to turn probability into a long-awaited second star.