Sixteen years after Siphiwe Tshabalala’s thunderbolt ignited Soccer City, South Africa return to a familiar opening-night storyline, but under very different circumstances. This time there is no vuvuzela-fuelled home advantage, no golden wave of national euphoria. Instead, Bafana Bafana walk into the cauldron of Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca as clear underdogs against a Mexico side that looks ominously well-tuned.

Back in 2010, Carlos Alberto Parreira’s men defied expectations, taking the lead before Rafael Márquez’s equaliser forced a 1-1 draw. Even then, the odds were stacked against them and South Africa ultimately exited at the group stage. Now, with Hugo Broos in charge and the World Cup expanded to 48 teams, the challenge is different but no less daunting.

Broos’ build-up has been anything but smooth. South Africa arrive in Mexico on the back of a goalless stalemate with Nicaragua and a laboured 1-1 draw against Jamaica in a closed-door friendly in Pachuca. Lyle Foster found the net in that match, but the overall display left the coach openly frustrated, questioning his players’ mentality and intensity as the tournament looms.

Injuries have complicated matters further. Left-back Aubrey Modiba, a key outlet in transition, has been racing to regain full fitness, while wingers Thapelo Morena and Mohau Nkota have already been ruled out. The likely starting XI leans heavily on domestic-based talent and a handful of European-based players, with Foster expected to shoulder the attacking burden and midfield metronome Teboho Mokoena tasked with dictating tempo under pressure.

Mexico, by contrast, enter the opener with momentum and depth. Under Javier Aguirre, back for a third spell in charge, El Tri have pieced together an eight-match unbeaten run in friendlies, highlighted by convincing wins over Ghana, Australia and Serbia. Even with injuries to goalkeeper Luis Ángel Malagón and midfielder Marcel Ruiz, Mexico’s squad brims with experience and attacking options, from Raul Jiménez up front to the lively wide threats of Roberto Alvarado and Julián Quiñones.

Guillermo Ochoa, the only survivor from the 2010 squads on either side, now stands as a symbol of Mexico’s continuity. South Africa, by contrast, are still searching for a new identity on the biggest stage. On paper, few expect Bafana to win. Yet World Cup openers have a habit of defying logic, and South Africa know better than most how one inspired night can rewrite expectations.