Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea project has reached its first real crisis point. Early momentum, built on comfortable wins over Brentford, Pafos, Crystal Palace and Wolves and eye-catching victories against Napoli and West Ham, has stalled just as the season enters its decisive phase.

Back-to-back home draws with Leeds and Burnley, both from winning positions, have transformed the mood. Rosenior admitted his side had “set fire to four points” and the table backs him up: Chelsea sit above Liverpool only on goal difference, with a daunting sequence of fixtures looming.

The schedule is unforgiving. Chelsea travel to Arsenal and Aston Villa, then host Manchester City and Manchester United in successive league games, before a trip to Anfield. Layered on top are a Champions League knockout tie against either Paris Saint-Germain or Newcastle and an FA Cup campaign that will further stretch a young, still-maturing squad.

Data underlines the paradox of this Chelsea side. They rank among the Premier League’s best in expected points and have generated the highest expected goals total, yet they are one of the division’s worst underperformers against that metric, scoring significantly fewer than they should. They press aggressively, leading the league in PPDA, but have conceded 12 goals from set pieces, a glaring weakness for a team with top-four ambitions.

Those frailties have been most costly at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have dropped 17 points from winning positions at home, close to a club-record low. Supporters have seen flashes of a dynamic, high-ceiling team, only for lapses in concentration and composure to undo the good work.

Rosenior has been explicit about what must change. He wants “wave after wave of attack” rather than sterile domination, and he knows set-piece organisation cannot fail again, especially against an Arsenal side that thrives from dead balls. Discipline is another concern: eight red cards this season point to a recurring loss of control in high-pressure moments.

Injuries and suspensions complicate matters. Wesley Fofana is banned after his dismissal against Burnley, Marc Cucurella is sidelined and Estevao is a doubt, though Romeo Lavia’s return offers a timely midfield option.

For Chelsea, the equation is stark. A top-five finish, and with it Champions League football, is no longer assured. With the toughest run-in of any contender, the margin for error has almost vanished. Now it gets serious.