A confidential United Nations Group of Experts report has drawn the most detailed connection yet between former Congolese president Joseph Kabila and the AFC/M23 rebellion, portraying a movement that is simultaneously consolidating military control and preparing an ambitious political project in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The report, seen by multiple international outlets, describes Kabila as an increasingly central political interlocutor for the alliance. Investigators say the former head of state has travelled to areas under AFC/M23 control and held a series of meetings with its senior leadership, signalling what the experts characterise as a deepening strategic partnership rather than ad hoc contacts.

According to the experts, discussions are under way to overhaul the structure and branding of the movement, including the adoption of a new name designed to broaden its appeal beyond its traditional Tutsi and ex-rebel base. Diplomats briefed on the findings say this reconfiguration is being framed as the embryo of a future political platform in which Kabila and AFC/M23 figures would share influence.

On the battlefield, the report estimates that AFC/M23 now fields roughly 30,000 fighters, placing it among the most powerful non-state armed actors in the region. Its ranks reportedly blend veterans of the CNDP and the original 2012 M23 rebellion with new recruits from the Rwandan diaspora, refugee camps and thousands of defectors or captured personnel from the Congolese army, police and Wazalendo militias.

The experts further document the presence of between 14,000 and 18,000 Rwandan soldiers in North and South Kivu, describing their deployments as integral to AFC/M23 operations. General Vincent Nyakarundi is cited as the overall commander, with Generals Eugene Nkubito and Vincent Gatama leading forces in the two provinces and General Stanislas Gashugi heading special units. Former Rwandan defence chief James Kabarebe is identified as the key liaison with both AFC/M23 and Kabila.

Politically, the movement is no longer seeking reintegration into the Congolese army. Instead, it is promoting the creation of a Federal Republic of Congo and a new federal army it would help shape. Failing that, the report says, AFC/M23 is considering an autonomous region in the east.

The experts accuse AFC/M23 of being the principal perpetrator of documented human rights abuses, while also listing serious violations by the Congolese army and allied militias, including alleged breaches of the UN arms embargo.