Nigeria announced a 54-man provisional squad for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), subsequently reduced to a final list. The selection process has generated significant debate among stakeholders, with limited clarity regarding the criteria used by coach Eric Chelle. Current public sentiment and expert analysis indicate historically low expectations for the team’s performance at the tournament.

Following Nigeria’s appearance in the previous AFCON final, there was an expectation of continued progress. However, the team failed to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, highlighting structural weaknesses and prompting calls for a squad overhaul. Chelle was appointed during the latter stages of World Cup qualifying, inheriting a team with limited time for tactical or personnel changes. The lack of squad evolution has been noted as a persistent issue.

One notable development was the emergence of 20-year-old defender Benjamin Fredricks, whose performances provided evidence of the benefits of integrating younger players. However, Fredricks’ injury has reduced available defensive options and raised concerns about squad depth.

For the current AFCON, Chelle has included five new players, four of whom are under 23: Ryan Alebiosu (23), Ebenezer Akinsanmiro (21), Salim Fago (22), and Tochukwu Nnadi (22). Alebiosu, currently at Blackburn Rovers, is expected to address defensive gaps caused by injuries to Ola Aina and Fredricks. Akinsanmiro and Nnadi are projected to add energy and creativity to the midfield, while Fago is considered a potential attacking asset despite limited exposure in Croatian football.

The selection of 31-year-old Usman Mohammed, absent from major international competition since the 2016 Olympics, has been identified as inconsistent with the apparent youth-focused strategy. The rationale for his inclusion remains unclear based on available performance data.

Goalkeeper selection has also been a point of contention. Maduka Okoye, recently reinstated at Udinese following a betting suspension, was expected to compete for the starting position due to Stanley Nwabali’s recent errors and injury concerns. However, Udinese’s conditional release terms were not accepted by the Nigerian Football Federation, resulting in Okoye’s omission and ongoing uncertainty regarding the goalkeeping position.

In the attacking lineup, Tolu Arokodare’s initial strong performances were offset by subsequent underperformance, leading to his exclusion. Akor Adams and Paul Onuachu have been included based on recent form and productivity metrics, indicating a selection policy prioritizing current performance indicators.

Historically, Nigeria has been considered an AFCON favorite. However, consecutive World Cup qualification failures have negatively impacted team and fan morale. Current projections suggest low confidence in the team’s ability to advance beyond the quarterfinal stage.

Captain William Troost-Ekong’s retirement, announced after the provisional squad was named, reflects ongoing uncertainty within the squad. Reports indicate that his inclusion in the provisional list was a procedural decision to allow for a formal retirement announcement.

Injuries to key players, including Ola Aina, Fredricks, and ongoing concerns regarding Nwabali, have further reduced squad stability. Francis Uzoho, despite improved club form, faces skepticism regarding his reliability at the international level.

Chelle’s approach to domestic league players has also been analyzed. Despite initial engagement with the home-based squad, no domestic league players were included in the final AFCON roster. This continues a trend observed since 2013, when only two of six home-based players in the AFCON-winning squad received significant playing time.

In summary, Nigeria’s AFCON squad selection reflects a combination of injury-driven changes, limited integration of domestic talent, and a partial shift toward younger players. Available data and recent performance trends suggest that expectations for the team’s success are low, with significant uncertainty regarding both short-term results and long-term squad development.