Tottenham Hotspur, a club that has come to regard Champions League nights and top-four battles as its natural habitat, now finds itself glancing nervously over its shoulder. A bruising home defeat to Arsenal has left Spurs 16th in the Premier League, only four points clear of the relegation zone and mired in the worst recent form of any side in the division.

Nine league games without a win have turned what was once a blip into a full-blown crisis. Over their last 12 Premier League fixtures, Spurs have collected just seven points. In the same period, Nottingham Forest and West Ham – both below them – have taken 12 each, steadily eroding what once looked like a comfortable cushion.

The numbers are stark. If these trajectories hold, Tottenham’s final two matches, away at Chelsea and at home to Everton, could become do-or-die occasions for a club that has never been relegated from the Premier League.

Injuries provide part of the explanation but not the whole story. Spurs have more absentees than any other top-flight side, with 11 players unavailable. Long-term injuries to Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison have blunted their creativity, while further setbacks to Mohammed Kudus and Wilson Odobert have stretched an already thin squad. Captain Cristian Romero’s suspension for the derby only compounded the sense of fragility.

Manager Igor Tudor must now attempt a near-impossible balancing act: navigating a Champions League knockout campaign while fighting a relegation battle with a patched-up squad. Unlike last season, when Ange Postecoglou could effectively sacrifice league form to chase European progress, Tudor has no such margin for error.

Yet the most troubling issue may be psychological. Tudor has spoken of “bad habits” ingrained over years, echoing criticisms from predecessors Jose Mourinho, Antonio Conte and Postecoglou about a soft underbelly at the club. Pundits have been equally blunt. Former captain Jamie Redknapp describes a team “devoid of personality,” demanding they finally show some character.

The fixture list offers a sliver of hope. On paper, Forest, West Ham and Burnley face tougher run-ins based on opponents’ league positions. But Tottenham’s recent failure to beat the sides below them suggests no game can be treated as straightforward.

Data models still insist relegation remains unlikely, with Opta’s projections giving Spurs only a small chance of going down. Inside the stadium, though, with form collapsing and tension rising, it feels far less theoretical. For the first time in the Premier League era, Tottenham are having to confront a question once unthinkable: what if they really do go down?